Expecting the... expected

So the Law of Unexpected Consequences strikes again, this time dealing a death knell to the EU Constitution. Looks like I won't get my chance to vote after all...

Although I am actually more concerned about the Euro's exchange rate (advice anyone?) I do think it is yet another example of how history has a knack of throwing up the unexpected. Sure, it seems inevitable now but who really thought the Fall of the Wall would see, just 15 years on, the likely end of European federalism and "ever closer union"?

But should it be so unexpected?

Both the French and the Dutch killed off the Constitution in protest at a process that has taken place over the past generation over which they have been given little or no say. Similarities anyone?

It may well be that the French in particular would choose a moribund protectionist model if they got the chance, but surely they will only reject it if they find out it doesn't work by voting for it and finding out the hard way.

People don't like being told what to do, they don't like having things imposed on them. That was one of the reaons I was against the war in Iraq - because I felt if the people really wanted to choose a democratic state they would rise up and fight for it. And then hold on to it, tight.

This may seem harsh or niave, but isn't that what we did, and the Americans too? Our democracies are intrinsically linked with our national identities. That's why I believe democracy in Iran, born of a popular uprising and for all its faults, could one day resemble our own, while I fear Iraq will fracture further before it, too, is able to develop its own way of doing things.